Europa 2014 - Place your bets!

[Lint]

UPDATE: The race is over! Please see the last post (http://www.otca.com.au/boards/showpost.php?p=443092&postcount=11) for a transcript and results!


http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a319/Lintson/Europa/Europa2014/DSC06124_zpsd8df34ac.jpg (http://s14.photobucket.com/user/Lintson/media/Europa/Europa2014/DSC06124_zpsd8df34ac.jpg.html)

Once again Rewind's Games Room is collecting bets for the annual race that stops the message board, the Europa 2014 Grand Tour! If you've been paying attention, you'll know that seven brave racers will be participating in the race this year, including a Decepticon to promote good will and all. Let's see some racer profiles so you good folk can do some educated betting.

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a319/Lintson/Europa/Europa2014/DSC06119_zps52ff2468.jpg (http://s14.photobucket.com/user/Lintson/media/Europa/Europa2014/DSC06119_zps52ff2468.jpg.html)
Sideswipe
Model: Lamborghini Countach
Description: Sideswipe is back but in black this year. After a dissapointing shared victory in 2013, he's got a new strategy.
Special ability: Firestormer: Sideswipe's packin some weapons this year. All racers in front of him will suffer a -1 speed penalty.


http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a319/Lintson/Europa/Europa2014/DSC06117_zps5a35c92b.jpg (http://s14.photobucket.com/user/Lintson/media/Europa/Europa2014/DSC06117_zps5a35c92b.jpg.html)
Sentinel Prime
Model: A big ass Ford F250 with a snow plow modification
Description: This jerk is here to win. While some are concerned that they let a Decepticon into the race, this is the guy most racers are worried about.
Special ability: Mr Plow: Every time Sentinel overtakes another racer, he will ram them for 1d/2 speed penalty.


http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a319/Lintson/Europa/Europa2014/DSC06116_zpse87a91dd.jpg (http://s14.photobucket.com/user/Lintson/media/Europa/Europa2014/DSC06116_zpse87a91dd.jpg.html)
Barricade
Model: Saleen S281 Police Cruiser
Description: Oh my god they let a Decepticon in the race?!? Barricade intends to take the lead and he's got the driving skills to keep it.
Special ability: Police Maneuvers: All racers overtaking Barricade must pass a skill check (coin flip) otherwise they match Barricades speed in that leg.

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a319/Lintson/Europa/Europa2014/DSC06115_zpsae677877.jpg (http://s14.photobucket.com/user/Lintson/media/Europa/Europa2014/DSC06115_zpsae677877.jpg.html)
Downshift
Model: 70's Pony Car
Description: Nobody really expects a Pony car in a serious race but Downshift is packing some serious power under that black hood.
Special ability: Extra Gear: Downshift's roll can do no worse than the worst roll by any racer in a leg. He also gains +1 speed on straight legs.

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a319/Lintson/Europa/Europa2014/DSC06121_zps6a3cb4e6.jpg (http://s14.photobucket.com/user/Lintson/media/Europa/Europa2014/DSC06121_zps6a3cb4e6.jpg.html)
Jazz
Model: Mitsubishi Eclipse with bodykit
Description: Jazz is a precision driver and a seasoned combat veteran. Nothing these racers throw at him could take him down.
Special ability: Commando: Jazz is immune to all attacks.

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a319/Lintson/Europa/Europa2014/DSC06122_zps87e7a428.jpg (http://s14.photobucket.com/user/Lintson/media/Europa/Europa2014/DSC06122_zps87e7a428.jpg.html)

Jazz
Model: Datsun 280ZX Turbo
Description: Although Smokescreen is a seasoned racer he loves to win. Will his underhanded tactics score him the Europa cup?
Special ability: Smoke Tactics: All racers behind Smokescreen suffer a -1 speed penalty.

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a319/Lintson/Europa/Europa2014/DSC06120_zpsca27f2ad.jpg (http://s14.photobucket.com/user/Lintson/media/Europa/Europa2014/DSC06120_zpsca27f2ad.jpg.html)
Wheeljack
Model: Lancia Stratos Turbo
Description: Wheeljack is back this year in high definition! Although he was first loser last year he reckons this year's course will put him ahead.
Special ability: Drift King: Famed on the rally circuit Wheeljack is the king of corners. +1 dice roll on corner legs.

2014 Course
Leg 1: Central City (Straight)
Leg 2: Paprika Plain (Straight)
Leg 3: Lookout Mountain (Curve)
Leg 4: Autobot City (Straight)
Leg 5: Coral Canyon (Curve)
Leg 6: Carbombya Desert (Straight)
Leg 7: Mount Hood National Forest (Curve)
Leg 8: Ecco Beach (Straight)

Unfortunately the new race model was not completed in time, so we are reusing last year's game mechanics.

So who do you think will win? Each new or broke member has 50 credits they can use to bet on the race. Not the gambling type? No worries, just vote on the poll :cool:. Betting will close when the actual Melbourne Cup race starts. Race results will be posted sometime after cup day.


CURRENT PAYOUT ODDS
NOTE: Payout odds subject the change before race time. All punters are entitled to change their betting up until the actual Melbourne Cup race time.

Win/Place Odds Updated 3/11/14
Sideswipe: 1:7 / 1:4
Sentinel Prime: 1:5 / 1:4
Barricade: 1:5 / 1:1
Downshift: 1:3 / 1:1
Jazz: 1:1.5 / 1:1
Smokescreen: 1:9 / 1:7
Wheeljack: 1:10 / 1:5

Trifecta: 1:50 (No payouts for draws)
Quinella: 1:20
First 4: 1:50 (No payouts for draws)

The following board members have carryover credits won from last year, they will not be entitled to the complementary 50 credits this year:
Bartrim: 175 credits
Trent: 175 credits
Ultramarginal: 140 credits

The following board members have won credits through the teaser game and are also entitled to the complementary 50 credits for new players bringing their balance to:
Deonasis: 250 credits
STL: 150 credits
Ravagecat: 100 credits

[Sky Shadow]

Cool. So... do I say something like, "I bet 25 credits on Sentinel Prime to win and 25 for him to place?"

(If so, then... that's what I say. :))

[Lint]

Cool. So... do I say something like, "I bet 25 credits on Sentinel Prime to win and 25 for him to place?"

(If so, then... that's what I say. :))

Yep though tabulated to make easier to read would help me out a lot i.e:

Sentinel Prime to WIN 25
Sentinel Prime to PLACE 25

All punters are also entitled to change their bets at any point up until the the actual Melbourne Cup race time.

[Lint]

UPDATE: Some time trials have been run and the results are in; Jazz, Sideswipe and Downshift were top performers in the trials and thus the betting odds have been updated accordingly.

Win/Place Odds Updated 3/11/14
Sideswipe: 1:7 / 1:4
Sentinel Prime: 1:6 / 1:4
Barricade: 1:5 / 1:1
Downshift: 1:3 / 1:2
Jazz: 1:1.5 / 1:1
Smokescreen: 1:9 / 1:7
Wheeljack: 1:10 / 1:5

[STL]

75 energy chips on Jazz to win
35 on Downshiift to win
40 on the Decepticon outsider

[UltraMarginal]

20 Credits on Trifecta: jazz, Downshift and Barricade. in that order.

20 on smokescreen to place

50 on jazz to win

50 downshift to win.

Lint, while I rarely bet, and I do put a couple dollars on the Melbourne cup, I really appreciate the work you're putting into this fun activity.

All we need now is a stop motion video of the race with calling by the channel 7 race commentator guy. :D

[Bartrim]

50 on Sideswipe to win
25 on Sideswipe to place
50 on Smokescreen to place

[Deonasis]

No method to this madness other than burning through the credits quickly..

A win bet for:
Smokescreen = 50 credits
Jazz = 50 credits


A place bet for:
Sideswipe = 50 credits
Wheeljack = 50 credits


A Trifecta bet for:
1st Barricade, 2nd Jazz, 3rd Sentinel Prime = 50 credits

[UltraMarginal]

I think I'm more excited about this race than the actual Melbourne cup.

[Demonac]

I hope none of your bots drop dead after the race.

[Lint]

The Europa 2014

Ace Caller: Welcome everyone to the Europa 2014 cross country race! It's a beautiful day here in Central City, the starting point on this 8 leg race. My name is Ace Caller.
Bruce McAvaney: And I'm Bruce McAvaney
Ace Caller: Uh, thats great, shouldn't you be calling our sister event the Melbourne Cup?
Bruce McAvaney: Well I've always had a special place in my heart for the Europa yacht race, and this year we're gonna have not one, not two, but seven bloody racers. It's gonna be spectacular!
Ace Caller: That it is Bruce, we also have a special guest commentator today at our CAR race: Dr Lucy Suzuki. Welcome Lucy.
Lucy: Thanks Ace. I am very excited to be here today. The Transformers are great friends of mine and I want to lend my support.
Ace Caller: Great to have you on board. Well without further ado lets get to talking raceday. Today we have seven racers competing in the Europa 2014. But whats different this year? Barricade. This year we have a Decepticon in the race to promote goodwill between nations and also Autobot and Decepticon.
Bruce: It's about time we let some fresh blood into this sport. I can't see this as anything but a good thing. If anything I think the organisers need to get more Decievertbots into the game.
Lucy: Hahaha and blood we will see. The Decepticons are not to be trusted, even if they are sporting the regalia of American law enforcement.
Ace Caller: You make some good points Lucy. Let's cross over to the starting line. The seven racers are revved and ready to go. The countdown has begun. Five, four , three , two, one AND THEY'RE OFF!

LEG 1: Central City.
Ace Caller: Downshift is off to a stellar start while Barricade has managed to block Wheeljack's advance. Sentinel plows his way through poor Sideswipe and Smokescreen, paving way for Jazz to take the middle field. That hit from Sentinel has caused Sideswipe to spin out, however in the rear is where he is most dangerous, as he lets loose some firepower that rains down on all the racers ahead of him. It's been an exciting start in the streets of Central City. At the end of this leg it looks like Downshift first, Barricade and Wheeljack second, Sentinel third, Jazz fourth, Smokescreen and Sideswipe dead last.
Bruce: Onya Sentinel! Punching through the otters.
Lucy: I don't know if I can condone such violence on city streets! On Velocitron much of the fighting was done on deserted motorways in the desert.

LEG 1: Paprika Plains.
Ace Caller: We've departed from the city limits and all 7 racers are now speeding through the undulating roads of the Paprika Plains. Smokescreen and Barricade are absolutely tearing up the track here...
Bruce: Sentinel! Sentinel Prime has laid the smackdown on Wheeljack! This is truly a special leg!
Ace Caller: That brutal assault has placed Wheeljack in the rear. Sideswipe lets his barrage go and Smokescreen has retaliated by blinding both him and Wheeljack.
Lucy: This is very interesting; the properties of Smokescreen's smoke are quite unique. Although they appear quite polluting they are actually nanobots that can help scrub emissions from the environment.
Ace Caller: And at the end of this leg, Barricade has taken the lead followed by Downshift, Sentinel Prime, Jazz, Smokescreen, Sideswipe and Wheeljack.

LEG 3: Lookout mountain
Ace Caller: The racers now face Lookout mountain, the first leg of challenging terrain and boy does it show. Sentinel Prime and Wheeljack are drifting around these corners like kings while the others are struggling, especially Barricade who has allowed Sentinel to slip past and take the lead.
Bruce: Sentinel is just carving his way through the competition today. Barricade and Downshift were forced to show some respect to the Prime. Forget Lookout Mountain, we should get this guy onto Mount Panorama. Wouldn't that be special?
Lucy: I have always liked this location. It has always been a place of great strategic value to the Autobots and the nearby lakes are a valuable source of seafood, my favourite!
Ace Caller: Sideswipe does a good job harrying the rest of the racers from behind whiel Smokescreen repays the favour. As we approach the gates of Autobot city, the order is Sentinel first, Barricade second, smart driving from Jazz lets him creep up to third followed by Downshift, Wheeljack, Smokescreen and Sideswipe in that order.

LEG 4: Autobot City
Bruce: Love this place. Has such an incredible vibe. Really look forward to seeing how Sentinel performs in this leg.
Lucy: You've really taken to Sentinel Prime havent you?
Bruce: He's easily the most exciting racer in the competition this year. Even moreso than Barricade.
Ace Caller: Downshift seems to be having engine troubles but makes a recovery by shifting to a lower gear. Jazz makes his big move, expertly maneuvering past race leaders Barricade and Sentinel to claim first place. Apart from the usual shenanigans from Sideswipe and Smokescren everyone seems to be holding back this leg. As we leave the city limits it's Jazz first, Sentinel second, Barricade third with Downshift and Smokescreen equal fourth and Wheeljack and Sideswipe in the rear.

LEG 5: Coral Canyon
Lucy: The Coral Canyons were formed millions of years ago when this area used be sea and strong ocean currents carved these underwater canyons.
Bruce: Thats right Lucy, this is a truly special place and just like those ancient ocean currents the racers are carving through this track. Especially that Jazz guy. Hiding in the middle order for the first few legs before making his big push.
Ace Caller: And boy has it paid off. Jazz maintains the lead assisted by Sideswipe who manages to cause a rockfall with his firepower that slows down the other racers. Smokescreen pours out more smoke to keep his lead over Downshift and Sideswipe while Wheeljack gains a place by being in his element. The racers are now climbing out of the Canyon. The race order is Jazz, Barricade and Sentinel, Wheeljack, Smokescreen, Downshift and Sideswipe hanging onto last place.

LEG 6: Carbomya Desert
Ace Caller: This region has been subjected to recent upheavals with the tyrant Abdul Fakkadi overthrown by Vegan Fundamentalists who have established a Vegan State (VS) in the desert. As a sign of goodwill to the rest of the world they have permitted the Europa 2014 to run through their domain.
Bruce: Good on em. I think anything that lowers the demand for live exports is a good thing.
Lucy: Vegetarians should be shot on sight...
Ace Caller: Lets not get distracted by culinary politics and get back to the race. Wow what a development! Sentinel and Barricade have really choked on this sandy terrain while Wheeljack and Smokescreen have gained precious ground. Wheeljack tries to overtake Barricade but the Decepticon is having none of it all the while Sideswipe, having to deal with Smokescreen's exhaust can do nothing but unleash his guns ahead. Jazz uses the turmoil behind him to further increase his lead. It really looks like Jazz has this race in the bag.
Bruce: What a race this is: it's Jazz in clear first, and everyone else but Sideswipe in equal second!

LEG 7: Mount Hood National Forest
Ace Caller:We now enter the winding trails of the Mount Hood National Forest. We should see a break in the order in this penultimate leg.
Bruce: Certainly hope so Ace. Will Sentinel make his comeback?
Lucy: The forest is known for it's diversity of fungi. I hope running the race through this area doesn't damage the ecosystem. The forest is also good for pagan rituals! They say many monsters live here.
Ace Caller: Uh okay...
Bruce: Speaking of monsters I think mayhem just unfolded. All the neck to neck racers have decided to push forward however Barricade has cut off Smokescreen. Sentinel Prime manages to smash through the middle order, knocking them left right and centre. Sideswipe and Smokescreen do their thing, setting the forest ablaze. Jazz meanwhile has had a terrible leg and now Sentinel is hot on his heels.
Ace Caller: Leaving the woods it's Jazz first, followed closely by Sentinel Prime then Downshift and Wheeljack, followed by Smokescreen and Sideswipe with Barricade coming out for the worst. What a turn of events!

LEG 8: Ecco Beach
Ace Caller: The racers are now zooming down the Ecco Beach esplanade for the final leg of the race. The sun is out and dolphins are out to play. Will Jazz keep his narrow lead or will Sentinel smash his way to Victory?
Lucy: Don't forget both Wheeljack and Downshift still have a shot at victory.
Ace Caller: The racers are making their final plays. Sentinel, Downshift and Wheeljack have steal the lead! Sentinel tries to run Jazz into the water, but Jazz manages to stand his ground.
Bruce:: I knew Sentinel would make a comeback! Onya Sentinel!
Lucy: But look, without Smokescreen's nanobots in his face for once, Sideswipe has a clear shot at them all!
Ace Caller: Sideswipe has unleashed a barrage! Wheeljack, Downshift and Sentinel Prime are forced to dodge and Jazz has used the distraction to catch up to first place.
Bruce: Strewth, this is one close race!
Ace Caller: 1 kilometre to go, and it's still neck and neck. Wheeljack, Downshift, Sentinel, Jazz, it could be anyone's race! Half a kilometre... 250 metres. 100. 50...
Bruce: It's a draw!!!
Ace Caller: We're going to have to go to the high speed camera. Lucy, please tell us about this technology.
Lucy: It films things at a high frame rate. Up to thousands of frames per second.
Ace Caller:The footage shows Sentinel is a clear fourth... The footage shows Wheeljack is third... Jazz and Downshift are indeterminate. We are going to have to bring in our cinematography expert Rewind to determine the winner. What do you think Rewind?
Rewind: Thanks for bringing me in Ace, well after analysing the high speed camera footage I've noticed that the there is a reflection of a Transformers G2 Prime: The Generation Wars banner on the hoods of both alt modes.
Ace Caller: And what does this tell us Rewind?
Rewind: Well calculating the angle of the incident light and applying basic trigonometry I think we can declare Jazz the race winner by an ultra marginal fraction!
Ace Caller: Well there we have it! Jazz first! Downshift second!
Bruce:Well that some witch doctor science there. I still think Sentinel was the real winner.
Lucy: You can't argue with science Bruce.
Ace Caller: Thats right Lucy. Anyway thanks for joining us today.
Lucy: Thanks for having us Ace.
Bruce: It's been a special day indeed. See you next year Ace.
Ace Caller: God I hope not.

Summary of Results
1st: Jazz (WINNER)
2nd: Downshift (+0.01)
3rd: Wheeljack (+0.24)
4th: Sentinel Prime (+0.64)
5th: Barricade & Sideswipe (+6.64)
6th: Smokescreen (+7.64)

http://i60.tinypic.com/2vvq55i.png


Well hope you've all enjoyed the race for this year. I'll calculate winnings at another time. Running this race has taken a bigger chunk out of my sick day than I thought!

[Deonasis]

What a great read, the commentating was just perfect too!

A very exciting race with plenty of bent chassis' (except Jazz).

Also didn't think that some poor racers could be trapped between Smokescreen and Sideswipe.. ouch!

Thanks again Lint, I ain't a petrol head or gambling man but I love this race and the effort put in :D

[Lint]

Well I've calculated the payouts, this is what your balances currently look like. Let me know if I got it right.

Sky Shadow: 100 credits
STL: 112 credits (rounded down .5 bahahahaha)
Ultra Marginal: 75 credits
Bartrim: 50 credits
Deonasis: 325 credits
Ravagecat: 100 credits (did not bet)
Trent: 175 credits (did not bet)

For those who are interested, the bookies took in 715 credits worth of bets this year and paid out 662; earning a modest profit of 53 credits. Sky Shadow was the biggest winner in terms of % return, effectively doubling his money. Deonasis won the biggest payout overall at 325 credits. Only Sky Shadow and Deonasis managed to make a profit this year.

And for those who are interested in the game mechanics. If we stripped away all the special abilities the race would have been Sentinel Prime first, Downshift and Smokescreen second, Barricade third, Wheeljack and Sideswipe fourth and Jazz last. You can really see how powerful Jazz's (and last year's Bluestreak's) ability is especially against a very 'attack happy' crowd.



20 Credits on Trifecta: jazz, Downshift and Barricade. in that order.

Lint, while I rarely bet, and I do put a couple dollars on the Melbourne cup, I really appreciate the work you're putting into this fun activity.


One bloody racer off from winning that Trifecta. Barricade tested well in the heats and was racing well until the end. So unlucky! Thanks for the praise its way more effort than it looks O_O.



Also didn't think that some poor racers could be trapped between Smokescreen and Sideswipe.. ouch!

Thanks again Lint, I ain't a petrol head or gambling man but I love this race and the effort put in :D

That happened a lot in the simulations. Whoever managed to get in front of the crossfire usually won.

Thanks for playing :cool: