Uhhh, I think it's because of something else.Quote:
Originally Posted by autobreadticon
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Uhhh, I think it's because of something else.Quote:
Originally Posted by autobreadticon
Plunging currency highlights Australia’s financial weaknesses
Crikey founder Stephen Mayne writes:
In terms of government bailouts, Australia has been reasonably protected from the global chaos, but the plunging local currency puts a very different perspective on things. While word equity markets are falling in unison, currencies movements are a relative measure and the Australian dollar is being singled out as high-risk.
At one level it doesn’t make sense for the American banking system to collapse while Australia, with strong banks, watches its currency plunge from US98.5c on July 16 to less than US70c overnight.
Having the world’s most expensive banking system gives does give our local cartel plenty of capital such that the bailouts can be contained to the private system. Indeed, CBA has confirmed exclusive negotiations with HBOS over Bankwest this morning.
Unfortunately, a very strong banking system is the best things that can be said about Australia and Fairfax’s Michael West has focused on several critical weaknesses this morning.
The current account deficit is our biggest problem. Why on earth are we borrowing $60 billion a year when enjoying the best terms of trade in history?
In a credit constrained world, you don’t want to be saddled with a $620 billion foreign debt when national income is tumbling with commodity prices.
The implications are wide-spread. For instance, you can forget about Wayne Swan’s $20 billion-plus budget surplus for 2008-09. The Feds will be lucky to stay in surplus at all and might even have to support our most debt-laden state, NSW, as it tries to borrow a net $18 million a day.
In a world of utter mistrust in the private banking markets, governments will progressively slash official interest rates, guarantee deposits, nationalise banking and carpet bomb the system with liquidity.
After the weaker financial institutions are nationalised or taken over, this Darwinian system will then focus on the weak government and sovereign issuers, starting with small fry such Iceland. The most immediate problem is terrorism central Pakistan, which is about to run out of foreign reserves and will require more US government support.
In the Australian context, the Federal government will probably be forced to guarantee all deposits, along with the $100 billion-plus debts of the states and their projected $20 billion-plus in new borrowings for 2008-09. State infrastructure spending plans will have to be slashed.
The Howard Government’s decision to strip more than $20 billion in dividends from the Reserve Bank has left Australia with just $30 billion in foreign reserves, which is close to the lowest in the developed world. Check out this list of foreign reserves to partially gauge the relative strength of sovereign states and their ability to bail out banks, guarantee deposits and defend their currencies.
On the plus-side, we should be thankful for David Murray’s caution at the Future Fund in preserving $40 billion in cash and then, of course, we have the fabled $1 trillion in conscripted super.
With the Aussie dollar falling below US70c overnight, super trustees have a unique opportunity to repatriate some US dollars and help domestically recapitalise our banks, buy local mortgage-backed securities and fund the flood of Australian equity raisings that will come in a credit constrained world.
While a new Bretton Woods style agreement is needed, the Europeans showed over the weekend that it is every nation for itself. The biggest asset we’ve got is super, but tens of billions are needed to be brought home to man the barricades.
doh. Should've ordered more at RK at 0.86 lolz
Further proof Politicians will only do something for what's popular in the "here and now" The Liberals of the 90's may have gotten us out of short term debt but left us with sweet F.A. for the future.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDirtyDigger
Islamic law prohibits investing in securities with interest rates, so all this petrol dollars are not circulating. If the Muslim countries were not restricted by their religion to invest ,they could compete with London and NY
i break the AUD down F/X USD
Lower interest rate decreases $AUD
#Lower Aus interest rates (less incentive for investment in Australia)
Positive outlook - increase AUD
#Increased inflation in U.S (happening),International investors will see Australia financial system as a better option.
edit: i really like to see how the U.S re-structures it fianancial system :)
I think this article gets to the heart of the problem:
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/gre...1007-4vt6.html
Thought provoking read.
The CEO of Lehmans Bnak was being paid $17000 per....Month? Week? Day?
NO......$17000 per freakin hour!! :eek:
On an 8 hr day thats $136000! Or close to $33 million per annum.
Somebod please tell me how that can be justified? Why does anyone need that sort of income? Ok, so you buy a house, a boat, 2 luxury cars, and a couple of LCD TV's and the entire MIB G1 TF's AFA Graded. Then what?
What could you do with all that money? Surely you'd get bored because you'd have nothing to strive for. And would any of your relationships/friendships be meaningfull?
Its disgusting.
Help send the Economy of the Western Superpower into a huge recession?Quote:
Originally Posted by Hereticpoo
:D
Aaand that's my cue to say Hi from a newbie to this very particular niche. I've done it a bit before (to the tune of a couple of million bucks), but never actually gotten paid for it. Any suggestions?Quote:
Originally Posted by jaydisc
It's not for buying stuff, it's for keeping score in the global market. The more someone is willing to pay for you, the higher your 'rank' and the more respect and power you wield.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hereticpoo
90% of that income probably goes into a series of automatically managed investment funds and disappears until the owner decides they want a set of matched hot-pink Ferraris for the fifth wife.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Geminii
5 wives *cringe*
That would be HELL! :D
ok time for my 2c
the way i look at the Australian share market is:
the reason the share market looses so much money ( oh yeah this doesn't only apply to the aussie one btw:P ) is because people are panicking and selling their shares, therefore pushing these shares down. other shares are pushed down by other circumstances, such as bad returns etc, but the main thing that pushes the market down is panic. This started when the American banks gave out loans they couldn't collect on, and then spiraled into what we see today, way to much debt and the inability to pay it off. This leads to the banks having incollectable debt, which makes them loose money and therefore pushes their shares down more.
Then our very own RBA, cuts the interest rate by 1%, which is HUGE, which in turn, makes Australia less attractive to invest in, which in turn again lowers our dollar in comparison to international currency. making me sad :(
sadly, a large number of investors really have no idea what to do properly. i know that when i see the market bottoming out, ill be buying shares like crazy, and i know that ill make a good profit, and eventually the market and the world will even itself out. this has of course happened all before, although the decline stage that we are in now is happening much faster than what it has happened in the past, that's why we are so worried, if the dollar only dropped say 4c a month, people would still be annoyed but wouldn't worry as much as they do when it drops >4c a day :S
the share market is run by panic, when a new mining deposit is found by a company, so many people buy those shares, making the share price go up heaps, but this time it is happening in reverse.
so in short, im aiming to be rich when the crisis is over :P and remember it will all be over eventually, because the sunlight always comes after the rain :D
I have no doubt when it'll be over. But I think many of the problems right now are more long term ones. You've got to remember Australia has its fair share of debt too and we -cannot- afford it forever. Not to mention even if our economy is relatively strong, it will decline and our debt will come back to smack us in the face.
The danger right now is that the hysteria is dragging companies that are perfectly fine into the mire. Companies with solid credentials are falling over not b/c they are bad businesses but b/c there is a credit squeeze. They cannot get the loans/financing to pay for the things that they normally do. And it's a circular effect b/c the shareholders of those companies too panic and it all goes to hell which it has. I do not think the issue is so much liquidity at the moment any more. With all the cash that Reserve Banks around the world have pushed out onto the market that should not be the issue. The principal issue is confidence and that's much harder to restore. Banks as it stands are unwilling to lend to not only customers who they fear might default but each other.
And I do like the idea of jumping on board when things hit the lowest too. I've turned my mind to that more than once. There's always a window of opportunity in a time of crisis.
But the part that angers me the most is the Commonwealth Bank's acquisition of Bankwest and St. Andrews. All this is going to do for it is solidify its position as the largest bank in Australia. This though will severely hampen competition in the long run. And isn't it ironic that a bank claiming to be having trouble getting funds can fund a $2 billion acquisition?
Yes, I'm sure that they will struggle to make an 8 figure profit this year...:rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by STL
One positive of their acquisition of Bankwest is that there may not be anymore of those annoying Bankwest tv ads.
2 . Can everyone calm the fudge down about the economy?
Canberra correspondent Bernard Keane writes:
Everyone see Steve Keen on The 7.30 Report last night?
You can take your pick, Keen reckons, from either a recession more severe than the last one, or an Even Greater Depression lasting a decade with 20% unemployment.
With all due respect to Steve, he needs to get a grip -- as do plenty of other doom and gloom merchants. Mike Steketee today was declaring that Kevin Rudd could face the same fate as Scullin, the only other one-term Prime Minister -- undone by the Depression.
I’m still waiting for someone to produce some reasoning as to why the Australian economy is going to shrink, let alone fall off a cliff, because there’s no evidence for it. And the collective amnesia about the fact that six months ago we were all worried the economy was running too hot is particularly annoying.
The IMF doesn’t think we’re too badly placed. And unemployment figures for September came out this morning. Employment is a lagging indicator, so it presumably won’t tell us much about what’s happening now, but unemployment skyrocketed to an alarming ... 4.3%, in seasonally adjusted terms.
In trend terms, employment rose slightly and unemployment fell slightly. Employers who are still struggling to get skilled staff might be able to breathe a sigh of relief sometime soon, but not right at the moment.
And then there’s commodities and China. Chinese growth is tipped to slow to a sluggardly 9%. It wasn’t too long ago that the main worry about the Chinese economy was overheating, as well. You’d have to tip that the long boom in commodities prices is over, but who seriously thinks that with Chinese demand still growing strongly, they’re going to fall back to the sort of levels we saw in the early part of the decade?
But China relies on exports, people will object, especially to Europe and America. Indeed. But it also has 1.2 plus billion people, in a region with another billion people in rapidly-developing economies (remember that enormous disaster, the Asian economic crisis?). So far this is whites-only crisis.
And then there’s our currency, which is currently plumbing irrational depths that must make exporters weep with joy. A damn sight better than parity with the US dollar, even if it means petrol stays expensive.
Yes, almost certainly, the drop in growth will undermine the Government’s tax take. The Mid-Year Economic Forecast in December now takes on a significance it hasn’t for some years, as it will provide a pointer to just how badly Treasury expects deteriorating economic conditions to affect revenues. However, the Government has showed some nous on that front.
Lindsay Tanner and Finance officials have been engaged all year in a line-by-line search for savings through the Commonwealth Budget, the sort of root-and-branch savings hunt that hasn’t been conducted since Peter Costello undertook a similar hunt back in 1996-97, which will free up spending to be redirected if necessary. The Government should therefore be well-placed to maintain targeted spending without spooking the markets by wiping out the surplus or going into deficit.
And a few commentators might want to understand that the equity markets do not equal the real economy -- particularly when they are behaving as irrationally as they are currently. The US bailout is already being declared useless when barely a cent has been spent -- all because stock markets have tanked since it was passed.
People might want to wait until it starts working before declaring it ain’t working. Particularly when they represent the sort of investment banks that stand to directly benefit from even more taxpayer largesse.
Between professional pessimists like Keen, a media anxious to play up the drama and self-interested representatives of the financial sector, you’d get the impression the only rational response to the crisis is unrestrained panic. That will probably ensure predictions of a depression become self-fulfilling. Just remember how we finally overcame the last depression -- with a world war.
Overcame with a war. Going to war is what brought them to the state of bankruptcy they now face. :D That's what makes it funny. :)
I still see all of this as a way that American lenders can get themselves out of trouble from non-collecting because of their reckless policies and non-regulation. I still think they caused this to happen so that they can then get cheap shares and make their money back that way.
This is what you should be watching:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=msNwqbhoiug
folks, stop worrying and enjoy your toys while you can... it will be over soon enough..
if not, at least you would have enjoyed your toys before selling them off :/
Oh god, I'm revising for my exams and I came across this:
Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank in June 1990:
“The failure by lenders to maintain traditional lending standards, in the drive for market share added fuel to the fire. Many bankers did not tell borrowers “sorry, the security is not adequate, or the project is not bankable”.
It's amazing sometimes. We never learn.
Of course humans never learn. Check out the causes of the depression. And then the Tulip boom/bust.Quote:
Originally Posted by STL
Well, I feel like complete and utter shit this afternoon.
A few weeks ago they laid off two blokes because there was just no work for them. Today they laid off two of the girls because they just can't afford to keep them.
Should I be happy that I wasn't laid off? Probably. But truth is, I should have been one to go because i'm one of the newer people. The two girls today have been there longer than I. But what makes it more difficult is i'm considered a "long term investment". They intend for me to take over from the Admin/Company Secretary when he retires in a few years, and because of that I get to keep my job, even though I personally feel at this point in my training I really don't know jack shit compared to everyone else.
And they blame it all on the "economic crisis" for these lay offs. I probably also am feeling a bit off about it all because I gave up a VERY stable job of 12 and a half years for this position and for all I know I could be out of a job by Christmas if things keep going down hill.
I work in the Vineyard/ Wine industry and it worries me because of the end product being a luxury item. I feel like im in similar scenario and its always int the back of my mind that if things turn to poo ill be on my way to centrelink. And on top of all that theres a water crisis! Best bet i reccon is to have some sort of a back up plan if worst comes to worst.
Im sure there are/ will be plenty of people in this same scenario. Not much you can do i guess but try and "ride it out".
Riding it out isn't so bad for me, I have enough in the bank to last me a while, I just wanted to use that money to buy a car.
But i'm reluctant to do that now as I have no idea what the future's going to bring. Hell, one of the girl's they put off today had just signed the papers for a loan for her new car!
ugh ... they were great people too. Really liked the pair of them. Seriously ******* hate this.
Hang in there, buddy. This is a tough time ahead and I'm under no illusions about how tough it's going to be either. I think you just have to hope for the best and really work hard now. It does seem unfair that when things are good you are pushed harder so that you help pushing profitability but when things go bad you still have to work harder to keep a job. Just focus on the positives and do the best you can each day.Quote:
Originally Posted by Burn
In my area, I know of people who have been laid off too and I feel very bad but the most you can be for them is a buddy. Its tough times. The local businesses in the areas are feeling it too. I can't begin to imagine what its like in Europe and the US.
I think the wine/alcohol industry should be okay (unless you work for a very expensive premium brand), as I was reading that data suggests that liquor sales do not decrease when there are times of financial problems.
I understand where you are coming from Burn, a large portion of my friends work in the financial, banking and tax industries and most of them are quaking in their boots (well not the guys working at Macquarie Bank, but the others are) since they have not been in their jobs for more than 24 months yet.
Thankfully there will always be a need for IT/Web people to fix the errors of the people who do not get sacked!
All of this talk of financial problems has hitting the property market (i work part time in property) and there has been a decline in the work we are getting in comparison to last year.
Last Friday was a bad day, with 5 people from our offices were made redundant, one of them was my best mate at work :(
Just hope that somehow the financial and economic markets pick up, but honestly I dont see it happening soon. And they havnt really begun to start tackling the issue of climate change, which in the long term is even worse than any global market meltdown ever will be :eek:
Sorry for my lecturing but im seeing this through my work and uni studies in geography
Don't stress guys, there's always a good job out there for the person willing to put in a little extra effort....
http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/1795/att00078fp9.jpg
Yes they have. They're building the electric grid for a start. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by optimus1
http://news.cnet.com/8301-17912_3-10073799-72.html
http://www.betterplace.com/australia
And they're apparently researching some sort of special algae/biofuel for airplanes.
Then you have the total F-nuts that are greenpeace:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/10...greenpeace_no/
The only thing that is standing in the way of us (Australia), owning the world of the future is ignorance and politicans. Of course I mean uranium. :)
Where do you find this stuff, Stuart?
(don't get me wrong, I love this one!)
And don't forget that we are world leaders in Water technology too, and if the public and dole bludgers in suits (read: politicians) could be convinced our recycled water and Biosolids programs would have been up and running years ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by MV75
We also have a number of the worlds top Desalination experts that reside overseas thanks again to reluctance of accepting new technology at home.
Well, we use to work a 40 hour week with 2 of those hours being paid as over time.
We in Admin have been knocked back to 38 hours a week. Downside - I lose $60 or so gross ($40 or so after tax) a week. Upside - I get to leave work early 2 hours one day a week. Three if I don't have lunch.
Annoying side - We did this to save one of the other girl's jobs. Workshop have declined to do the same and have opted instead to be money hungry (even though there's not much work for them to begin with) while the Retail side of things have yet to decide.
This I agree with entirely.
ditto.Quote:
Originally Posted by STL
I don't know man. Although it sounds logical and I'd like to take it at face value, Murdoch always has an agenda and he wouldn't be saying anything unless there was something in it for him and his neo-con Zionist cronies. Also his nickname is ' the Dirty Digger'. I was shocked when that was pointed out to me. How can you trust someone with a name like that?Quote:
Originally Posted by STL
Anyway...not all Aussies are government subsidised, dole bludgers.
My mum's still working at her age and refuses a pension.....
http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/2013/mumls1.jpg
Some from our good friend Google but a lot from emails from friends who are even more messed up than I am. (It's true...they exist :o)Quote:
Originally Posted by dirge
Too much middle class welfare and subsidies are given out.
Plus the governments should never had bailed out those firms such as Fran & freddie who started all this mess. Should be like any business, you screw up, then you take the bad with the good you had.
After looking at "foreclosure ally", it wouldn't have mattered if they let those institutes collapse as people lost their homes anyway.
The real lesson the people need to realise is that to not get too used to the good times and expect them to last forever, and continue to last when the bad times come around.
EG: Look at, well anything really. It's all roses during the boom, then the bad times hit "wha wha wha, poor us, we only made 30 million this year instead of 100 million". WAAAAAAHHHHHHH.
:D :D :DQuote:
Originally Posted by TheDirtyDigger
You never cease to amaze me, you know that? :D
I think we have a perception in Australia that we work to hard when in fact we don't. I've been in the professional workforce as well as in the attitude of many of my younger peers today. I mean, all my peers at uni in the younger age bracket seem to have a very hypocritical attitude to work. They have absolutely no compunctions about taking time off for "personal" reasons, ie. party, and deceiving the employer but then when the employer says no, I need you to work today they moan they've just had enough. I see this among my peers at uni a lot and while I don't speak up about it, it does bother me.
*sings* It's the end of the world as we know it...
From what I understand, this exact type of behaviour seems to be a "gen y" thing - as in it's something mainly attempted by younger workers. FWIW, I don't really like the idea of workers being pre-judged by their age group - no doubt this is something done by certain people within that age group and not others.Quote:
Originally Posted by STL
You're right that Australians do feel a sense of entitlement about taking time off. I knew a guy who would make sure he'd take 10 days of sick leave every year, purely because he was entitled to it. And no, he's not "gen y".
Re Murdoch, this bit is interesting, "The bludger should not be our national icon". As DD said, Murdoch always operates with an agenda. This is a man who voluntarily relinquished his Australian citizenship to further his business interests (I'm not sure he's in a position to speak in terms of "our national icon"!). Usually when Murdoch makes comments in Australia he's trying to influence policy in one fashion or another - rather than just giving his opinion for his own sake. Which isn't to say he's _wrong_, but I suspect there's a budgetary agenda in that. Less handout means less need to tax his business interests (or something vaguely along those lines).
Oh I agree. The cynic in me knows he wants something else too but I can't help but actually agree with him which makes it all the more poignant in my eyes.
For Oakes Day, I know of a lot of my mates who are whining about exams and complaining about the lecturer making the course so hard or that they're gonna fake a sickie for extra study yet have found time for Oakes Day. I'm all for going but if you go, at least take some responsibility for your actions and don't turn around on your employer and call him an ass. I'm good w/ my the fellas but sometimes I just don't like the attitude and so just avoid the issue (tho I do rib 'em about when I get the chance). I dunno, or maybe it's just the law faculty.