my preference for sport styles comes from the simple techniques and the limited number of them. they translate to a real fight situation easily and the practitioner is used to actually getting hit and aally hitting back instead of pulling punches or punching air. it is very easy to become conditioned to pull your punches and have it translate to real life.
the reason i would back a noob sport fighter over traditional stylist is that 'simplistic' styles like boxing or muay thai allow the practitioner to reach a reasonable level of proficency in a relatively short time compared to most traditional styles as they tend to be more complex which includes wing chun which one of the reasons it was developed was the other styles at the time took too long to become proficient in them.
once again not knocking trad styles just explaining my reasons why i typed what i did, and yeah u r right in that a major part of what determines the outcome is the person themselves and not the style but i firmly believe the other part how u trained.