It could be worse...Originally Posted by Adzma
Too late, we're back to 69.
I remember it being around 47-49 cents sometime around the 90's
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It could be worse...Too late, we're back to 69.
I remember it being around 47-49 cents sometime around the 90's
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It's true that it could be worse but that doesn't mean I have to like our current situation. *Howls at the moon* 98 US cents...
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I doubt the dollar can sustain heights above 70c. There's still a lot of bad news ahead and any turn around would be optimistic at best. One of the other problems is that the solution being touted by the US is a mere derivative of a policy already floated last year by the old administration. The irony of that is if nobody gave it much credibility last time, why now? Some questions that really need to be answered there.
Secondly, there's a large interest rate differential at the moment between Australia and other countries which is virtually zero. The forwards market is factoring in rate cuts already in Australia. The only reason our interest rates didn't go down last time was b/c the Reserve Bank, wisely I might add, thought it'd be best to hold back interest rates b/c if it exhausted all of its monetary polcy options early, it wouldn't have anything to fall back onto.
So yeah, I don't think its sustainable. Unless of course, the US is already on its comeback which a few prominent US investors are suggesting. Personally, I think they're over optimisitic. There's still questions about a lot of fair value valuations on balance sheets as well. If there are write downs, again, not a good sign.
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I think the Australian dollar could sustain around 70-something USc but not much more than that.
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Well I certainly expect we won't be at 90 US cents for quite a few years from now.
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Well, well, well, 0.7142 USD tonight. Very interesting. Sustainable I still think not.
I was at a Societe Generale lunch today and the suggestion, which I agreed with, is that the Australian dollars appreciation is not sustainable. And if it is, that raises larger problems in the domestic economy b/c of our trade flows
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I think its simple.
World economy not good = AUD not good
World economy good = AUD good
This sudden rise in AUD is going to be short lived.
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