http://www.takefiveaday.com/2014/07/...-that-a-cliff/

Some interesting thoughts in this article. The most pertinent ones for us are:

"While Transformers, the movie is doing fine – the toys are stacked to the gills and selling at a slow pace... And if you can’t sell Transformer toys with a giant movie opening, you cannot sell toys... AND if you can’t sell trucks or robots that change into dinosaurs, there is big trouble in toyland.

The #1 licensed toy line in America usually generates about $400-$500 million in sales a year... At the rate the toys are selling, Transformers might still crack $225 million which is a lot but when you create inventory to sell $500 million dollars worth of toys? That’s not so good – plus all the 2nd and 3rd waves they were expecting to sell. So, get ready for some massive markdowns and serious re-packing … so wait for the sales and markdowns (and pick up the wave #2 & #3 releases for sales stock as they won’t get as much distribution). :-)

Last year, toy sales were down 9% in the US which is obviously not good BUT the worse news is if you took out LEGO, toy sales are down 17%!"