2022 Federal election

[Golden Phoenix]

Quick little correction here: the Senate is basically Hung as it usually is, with the Coalition usually getting their way through One Nation and whoever else they can wrangle votes from. At present there's a swing to progressive Independents and more greens, so Labor's issues are - based on current polling - more likely to swing the other way (i.e. they'll have to negotiate with more progressive Senators rather than the Coalition).

Labor had shown in the past that they were better negotiators than the Coalition when it came to dealing with a split Senate (while simultaneously dealing with a Hung Parliament as well). They got a lot of what they wanted during the Gillard/Rudd 2nd term.
If they are able to replicate that and get the results they could be ok.

We'll just have to see if the Greens get a solid block to hold the balance of power in their own right or not. I think they have shown an unwillingness to take partial victories a bit too often making them more obstructive than they should be. If they play smart they could push Labor and get part of what the Greens want. It wouldn't be everything, or as far as they want, but it would be something to build off down the line. Effectively ratchet things over time like the Right does.

[Dkaris]

Glad for the change of government, I'm not sure a minor Labor government is such a bad thing, I think the independents and greens would keep Labor honest and ensure they follow through on some of their promises, especially with climate action and a federal ICAC.

[Autocon]

So Labor didnt win, Liberal lost. But Labor is the new government. Lets hope it works to better the country

[griffin]

Quick little correction here: the Senate is basically Hung as it usually is, with the Coalition usually getting their way through One Nation and whoever else they can wrangle votes from. At present there's a swing to progressive Independents and more greens, so Labor's issues are - based on current polling - more likely to swing the other way (i.e. they'll have to negotiate with more progressive Senators rather than the Coalition).

Yes, the Senate was indeed hung in the last session, but the Coalition only needed 3 of the 6 crossbench to pass legislation, and as difficult as One Nation is to dealing with anyone, the coalition was more likely to try to court Hanson's support because of how much her party polled at the last few elections, and if they could keep her happy and try to keep Palmer on side, that would have been a big block of votes coming back to the Coalition at the next election (2022) in preferences... as it did in 2019 - which was the "miracle" that Morrison talked about, as their primary vote went down from 2016 but their 2-party vote (from preferences, which wins seats) went up, as Palmer was not secret about making sure Labor didn't win in 2019.

Anyway, for me there were a couple of really interesting things that came out of this season. I was honestly expecting Morrison to sneak back into minority government (or at least a larger minority than Labor) on the back of UAP/One Nation preferences, with both majors losing seats and a large number of Independents.

I was probably the opposite, in that I didn't expect Morrison to gain more seats because the advertising from Palmer was targeting both major parties this time (so the Coalition were not likely to get back all of those votes as preferences), and there was a very large, targetted campaign by the "Teals", who were polling quite high in the weeks leading up to election day... which would be taking primary votes from the Coalition and not sending them back as preferences (as United Party did in 2019, and One Nation in general).

The numbers at 66.3% of the count (and the difference to 2019) as of Sunday...
Coalition - 35.4% (down 6%)
Labor - 32.8% (down 0.5%)
Greens - 12.1% (up 1.7%)
One Nation - 4.9% (up 1.9% - the national vote was only up because they had candidates in twice as many electorates, but their vote in their 2019 electorates was down)
United Party - 4.3% (up 0.8% - they contested all seats last time as well, which makes it a very negligible improvement for $100million)
Others - 10.5% (up 2.2%)

It is worth noting that on Saturday night when the count ended at about 56%, the total valid Primary votes that weren't for Labor or Coalition was actually more than the Labor Primary vote... which was extraordinary.
As of tonight at 72.6% of the count, the Labor Primary vote just snuck back above the non-major party vote... but it is still a massive third of the population not voting for Labor or the Coalition, when the previous record was 25% at the last federal election in 2019.
Coalition-35.7% - Labor-32.8% - Others-31.4%
The Two-Party figure - Coalition=47.8% v Labor=52.2% (it shows how much of the Coalition Primary vote went to other parties and Independents, and then flowed to Labor instead of back to the Coalition like previous years)

The current lower house seat count as of tonight on the AEC website...
Labor - 75 (up 7 so far)
Coalition - 59 (down 16 so far)
Others - 14 (up 6 so far)
Still undecided - 3
(total 151)

Some random info for those interested...
2010 was the last time Labor had a Primary vote above 35%, which was the last time they won a Federal election.
Before this year, the two major parties needed at least 38% of the Primary Vote to win, and only twice in the last 30 years was the winning total below 41%.
In the last 30 years of 11 Federal elections, Labor has only ever had a higher Primary vote over the Coalition 3 times - 2007, 1998, 1993.
Three of the last 11 Federal elections were won with a lower Primary vote than the opposition - 1998 (Coalition) & 2010 (Labor), 2022 (Labor)
Power of Preferences - only 2 of the last 11 Federal elections had a major party with a higher Two-Party number but not a higher Primary vote - 2010, 2022 (both were Labor).
Since 1993, Labor has only once had a higher two-party percentage, which was in 2007 (Kevin Rudd election) at 52.7%.
As such, the Coalition has only had a lower two-party percentage at that same election, and this 2022 election had their lowest Primary vote in over 30 years.
In the last 30 years, only one Federal election was been won with less than 50% of the two-party percentage, which was the Coalition in 1998.

As for the "Others" vote - the Primary votes that didn't go to Labor or the Coalition from the last 30 years (stats are from wiki pages)...
1993 - 10.8% - 2 seats
1996 - 13.9% - 5 seats
1998 - 20.4% - 1 seat
2001 - 19.3% - 3 seats
2004 - 15.7% - 3 seats
2007 - 14.5% - 2 seats
2010 - 18.7% - 6 seats
2013 - 21.0% - 5 seats
2016 - 23.3% - 5 seats
2019 - 25.3% - 6 seats (it was 6 at the time of 2019 election - then 2 Liberals became independents before the 2022 election to make it 8)
2022 - 31.4% - 15 seats so far

Before 1996 the "Others" vote shifted from the Democrats to the Greens, but remained fairly low (which is why we have/had the "two party preferred" statistic being so important... but probably not for much longer). 1998 saw a big increase, thanks to One Nation... and then it settled down to 15-20% for about 20 years, before the big increase this year.
If Labor doesn't do anything really stupid in the next 3 years, their more inclusive polices and agenda will reduce the protest vote of recent years, and limit the demand for female & environmental candidates that syphoned off a lot of votes from the Liberals. As such, I don't think the Others vote will increase at the next election, but we could see more consolidation of the Minor Parties to hold onto most of their vote from this year. And I think that the "Teals" need to form a formal party if they want to keep their support from going back to the Liberals, especially if they see the light and find ways of being more inclusive of women in their party and policies.

I read somewhere that we had 50%, possible as much as 58% (I forget the number, think it was 50.8%) pre-polling day votes cast. A certain amount of that is probably due to Covid, which is still around and we're doing about as poorly at as we ever have despite it not rating a mention much in the campaign, but voter comments suggest a fair amount of that was also an 'I'm sick of it' factor. That's pretty incredible, especially since the LNP government actually made it harder to cast an early vote - they cut down the time you could do so and really pushed people to vote on polling day.

I'm of the opinion that we should have fixed terms that have a fixed election date (maybe for both Federal and State at the same time) that is a public holiday, so that we have most votes cast at the same time (most excuses for postal and absentee voting are then negated if no one is working, or not before noon like on Anzac day)... because a 4 week voting period can result in people voting early having a different opinion by election day if something significant had happened (globally, nationally, or even if there was a major scandal that pops up in the final week), and maybe regret their early voting choice. We also would have a much smaller pre-poll amount of votes to count, so that a result is known much quicker, as a close result (to be expected from now on) can leave the country without an effective government or speedy transition period. Or at the very least, have pre-polling votes be required to be received before voting day, and be counted on the day and are ready to be included on that night, so that we don't have to wait a week or two for final votes to come in to give us final results on the closer seats (especially if both major parties end up having similar amounts of Seats and neither side concedes to allow for a Government to form for a couple weeks, as we have recounts and court challenges).

Lastly, there's doubtless going to be a really interesting ****fight over future direction in the Coalition over the next few weeks/months/years. The much-diminished 'moderates' have been decimated and will point to the Coalition's incredible march to the Right as the cause, while the Nationals (who have been largely responsible for said march) have kept all their seats and will doubtless blame not pushing far-right enough as a result (likely as much/more for political jockeying's sake than out of genuine analysis). Barnaby's already out there starting to lay the narrative, and the Nats are always pushing for more power/influence within the Coalition even if it means trading off national-level electability. If Dutton gets back in (oh please oh please oh please let him lose his own seat, it'll so satisfying to watch) then he'll almost certainly be the new leader, and it'll probably mean yet more Trumpification rather than the 'return to the Centre' the already-ignored-and-now-even-less-powerful Moderate wing are already pushing for.

This I will also enjoy, as they have lost the factions that were their best chance at regaining public support, as their policies will be even more right-wing conservative, alienating everyone except the most loyal supporters (the closer to the "centre" you get, the more likely you gain the swinging voters and the protest votes of your opposing party). And as you noted with Barnaby, he has already been boasting that the Nationals didn't lose any of their seats... all 16 seats lost by the Coalition were Liberal seats, so he will will be in a position of greater power when they divide up the shadow portfolios, as the Nationals have a greater percentage of the Coalition seats this time.

We'll just have to see if the Greens get a solid block to hold the balance of power in their own right or not. I think they have shown an unwillingness to take partial victories a bit too often making them more obstructive than they should be. If they play smart they could push Labor and get part of what the Greens want. It wouldn't be everything, or as far as they want, but it would be something to build off down the line. Effectively ratchet things over time like the Right does.

Glad for the change of government, I'm not sure a minor Labor government is such a bad thing, I think the independents and greens would keep Labor honest and ensure they follow through on some of their promises, especially with climate action and a federal ICAC.

Traditionally, Labor uses Greens votes in Parliament and in preference deals, but publicly they try to distance themselves so that they don't get painted with the same policy brush, or be accused of being held hostage to the less popular or less practical Greens policies. I think the fact that we have so many Independents in both houses, Labor may not need to be too flexible, as they have a lot of different people and opinions available to fit the need of each item that they want passed in Parliament.
As of tonight, Labor are one short of majority, and it is a toss-up if they can win any of the remaining 3 that are in doubt... so if it remains at 75, they will only need one person of the 15 currently on the crossbench to vote with them, and could easily leave it up to the 15 crossbench members compete against each other to be that single vote in order to be the one who gets more back in return for them and their electorate.
The Senate will be a little different... at current estimates of number, The Coalition can't form a majority to automatically block Labor's bills from the lower house, but Labor will need the support of all Greens Senators and at least one independent to pass their Bills, and that means compromise. Sometimes compromise is in the best interest of the people if it drags a major party closer to the centre, but sometimes compromise can drag the major party away from centre if the only majority options are further away from the Centre, like One Nation (further Right) and the Greens (further Left).

The news programs are already claiming that Hanson and Palmer failed to get any seats in either House (a big news item for United, as Palmer is said to have spent $100million on advertising this time, on top of the $80million in 2019, with no seats to show for it), but I think that is premature. Only 38% of the Senate ballots have been counted, and 8 of the 40 Senate seats are still undecided, with 4 of those coming down to preferences, and that could take up to 2 weeks to work out.

Each of the states had 6 Senate seats up for grabs, while the two Territories had 2 each (equalling 40 in total at this election). The two Territories and two of the states can be comfortably worked out, while the other four states can only comfortably work out 5 of the 6 in each state, leaving 4 that could go a number of ways depending on preference counts.
One Nation are closest to securing 2 of those 4 seats (QLD & SA), United are closest to securing 1 of those 4 seats (VIC), and Jackie Lambie's team is closest in Tasmania.

The current numbers for the Senate...
(note - the "continuing number" is the Senators who were NOT up for re-election this time, as the State Senators have 6 year terms and only half of them are up at each 3 year federal election if there isn't a double-dissolution election... while the Territory Senators are up every 3 years)
Senate Total - 6 states with 12 senators each + 2 territories with 2 senators each = 76.
This election - 6 states with 6 senators each + 2 territories with 2 senators each = 40 (the other 36 are NOT up for re-election this year)

Listed by State/Territory...
(C=coalition - L=labor - G=greens - O=others - U=unknown)

(Definitely winning)
NSW - 2C - 2L - 1G - 0O - 1U
VIC - 2C - 2L - 1G - 0O - 1U
QLD - 2C - 1L - 1G - 0O - 2U
WA - 2C - 2L - 1G - 0O - 1U
SA - 2C - 2L - 1G - 0O - 1U
TAS - 2C - 2L - 1G - 0O - 1U
ACT - 0C - 1L - 0G - 0O - 1U
NT - 1C - 1L - 0G - 0O - 0U
(note that Greens should have 1 Senator from each state at this election, which is their best Senate result)

(Estimated winning - based on expected preference deals)
NSW - 3C - 2L - 1G - 0O - 0U
VIC - 2C - 2L - 1G - 0O - 1U (United Party has next highest allocation percentage, after the first five are deducted)
QLD - 2C - 2L - 1G - 0O - 1U (One Nation has next highest allocation percentage, after the first five are deducted)
WA - 2C - 3L - 1G - 0O - 0U (if this ends up being the final number for WA, I think it would be the first time that Labor won more Seats than the coalition in any state)
SA - 2C - 2L - 1G - 0O - 1U (One Nation has next highest allocation percentage, after the first five are deducted)
TAS - 2C - 2L - 1G - 0O - 1U (Jackie Lambi Team has next highest allocation percentage, after the first five are deducted - joining Jackie Lambi in the Senate)
ACT - 0C - 1L - 0G - 1O - 0U (an Independent has next highest allocation percentage, after the first one is deducted)
NT - 1C - 1L - 0G - 0O - 0U
Totals - 14C - 15L - 6G - 1O - 4U
(note - Pauline Hanson and former Liberal George Christensen were both listed for QLD for One Nation, so at least one of them will be gone, and if the sixth seat does NOT go to One Nation, two of the least rational people in Federal parliament would be gone, freeing up space for more educated and stable people)

Usually my estimates on the Senate lean away from the two major parties based on how the lower house preferences work, so my Estimates above could be completely out with the Unknowns.
That's because in the past, the Senate preferences after the first count seem to flow quite heavily back towards the major parties instead of going around the minor parties and independents first (which is what usually happens in the lower house, with preferences generally flowing through every other candidate before ending up in the opposing major party).

If the Estimated winnings list ends up being true, this would be the make-up of the Senate....

Coalition - last time 35 - continuing 17 - new 14 - now 31 (down 4)
Labor - last time 26 - continuing 11 - new 15 - now 26 (no change - a good indicator of how Labor's primary vote didn't go up, despite gaining lower house seats)
-
Green - last time 9 - continuing 6 - new 6 - now 12 (up 3)
-
One Nation - last time 2 - continuing 1 - new 2 - now 3 (up 1) (if they don't win any of the 4 undecided seats, they would end up being down to 1 with no new seats)
Jackie Lambie - last time 1 - continuing 1 - new 1 - now 2 (up 1)
United Party - last time 0 - continuing 0 - new 1 - now 1 (up 1) (if they don't win any of the 4 undecided seats, they would remain on zero)
Others - last time 3 - continuing 0 - new 1 - now 1 (up 1)

You can see that with 39 votes needed to pass items in the Senate, Labor and the Greens would equal 38, and Labor would need one more vote.
However, if the 4 remaining undecided seats do NOT go to any of the minor parties, we could assume that Labor and Coalition would end up with 2 more each...
Coaltion=33 - Labor=28 - Greens=12 - Others=3 (1 for One Nation, 1 for Jackie Lambi, 1 for Independent)
That still not be enough for the Coalition to be able to block the Senate, and enough Seats between Labor and the Greens to not need any of the 3 Others. Since there aren't enough Others to make up 39 votes, Labor can only use the Greens, which makes the 3 Others without any power at all.

[griffin]

The final results are in...

The lower house:
(need 76 for a working majority)

Labor - 77 (up 9)
Coalition - 58 (down 17)
Others - 16 (up 8)
(total 151)

The 16 "others" includes 10 Independents (up from 3), 4 Greens (up from 1), and 1 each to Katter and Center Alliance (was Xenaphon's party from South Australia).


The senate:
(need 39 to control the senate)

Coalition - last time 35 - continuing 17 - new 15 - now 32 (down 3)
Labor - last time 26 - continuing 11 - new 15 - now 26 (no change)
-
Green - last time 9 - continuing 6 - new 6 - now 12 (up 3)
-
One Nation - last time 2 - continuing 1 - new 1 - now 2 (no change) (thanks to QLD voters it looks like we get pauline hanson in there for another 6 years - at least she won't have as much power now, as she won't be needed to make up a majority by labor - she will still be on various panels and inquiries though)
Jackie Lambie - last time 1 - continuing 1 - new 1 - now 2 (up 1)
United Party - last time 0 - continuing 0 - new 1 - now 1 (up 1) (unfortunately they scraped in with Victoria, so Palmer's party will be around for another 6 years, and will now be getting tax-payer funding for future campaigns, as well as political immunity to say anything untrue if said while in parliament)
Others - last time 3 - continuing 0 - new 1 - now 1 (down 2) (a single independent from the ACT, which is an amazing effort, since the two Territories require almost 3 times the amount of votes to get a senate spot, as there are only 2 senate spots on offer, compared to 6 in each State)

Even if all of the crossbench supported the Coalition in the Senate, Labor and the Greens can block anything they put up... but with Labor in power in the lower house, that would never happen. Labor will still need one more Senator to join them and the Greens to pass legislation from the lower house, so the Greens will have a fair bit of leverage, as they can block everything if they don't get what they want as well.