Considering how long they've been around, and only had one negative feedback before this incident, AND considering they are refunding money with the claim that they will still send out the toys (leaving it up to the buyers to pay for it later if they want)... I get the feeling that it was probably just an unfortunate accident by someone else in their business, who boxed up the wrong items, or didn't know that a toy was to go into the boxes (if they saw a hat in each box and assumed it was ready to tape up and post).
A scammer wouldn't refund the money,
and wouldn't still be on ebay selling hundreds of items, a year after they first started. And their completed sales in the last three months have been 447 items (sold, out of 660 listed - that'd be a lot of work to scam a dozen people out of $47 each).
The amount of items being sold by this dealer would need at least 2 or 3 people to run... perhaps it is even an ebay account set up by an existing toy store in China.
If they are refunding money, it's not a scam... and if they still send the toy, it's sounds like some expensive damage control over a mistake by one of their employees.