COVID-19 updates comments and concerns

[griffin]

Watching one of the news programs on SBS yesterday, there are some big numbers so far in the big countries that have lots of resources, money and technology, and hearing some reports from South American countries and Yemen, with thousands of people dying in the streets and homes because there is almost no medical infrastructure or supplies to treat them... it had me thinking about all of the smaller countries, especially 3rd world countries, that are yet to experience the epidemic, and don't have the same resources or economy to deal with it. We see how countries like ours and America are dealing with the virus, by saving most of those affected with advanced medical care and equipment, as well as throwing money at the economy so that it should survive as well... but what of the countries that aren't in the G20 or 1st world? Countries in Africa, South America, Pacific Islands, and South Asia... just about every country in the world would have had travellers bringing the virus to their shores before global travel was shut down. Countries that have no way of being able to treat (in hospital) or contain (pay people to stop working) the virus, the percentage of people who will die in many other countries is going to be even higher than what we've already been seeing in Italy, America and England, as those countries were at least able to save a fair few lives before their hospital systems were overwhelmed.

[Paulbot]

Been concerned about this, the “third world” could be hit very badly by this. But my thinking goes to many terrible futures and I’m trying not to think about it too much.

[dirge]

Countries that have no way of being able to treat (in hospital) or contain (pay people to stop working) the virus, the percentage of people who will die in many other countries is going to be even higher than what we've already been seeing in Italy, America and England, as those countries were at least able to save a fair few lives before their hospital systems were overwhelmed.

The flipside of this for many (not all) of these poorer countries is that they have quite a bottom heavy population pyramid. IE lots of young people.

Italy & Spain have relatively top-heavy population pyramids & so while they have a lot of medical infrastructure, they also have a LOT of elderly - 23% of Italy's population is over 65. Conversely, Yemen's estimate of over 65s (2010) is 2.6%. So while the vulnerable in Yemen are definitely in the firing line, there's relatively few elderly.

(I know, Yemen isn't the BEST example, as it is also facing a lot of health issues thanks to the ongoing civil war, but I was able to pull the number easily)

The one that worries me is Indonesia. The population is over 230 million (4th in the world) and the over 65s are around 7%. So that's roughly 18 MILLION over 65... in a country with one of the highest smoking rates in the world; some really high population densities (Java has 145 million people and it's smaller than Victoria); a lot of poverty and a relatively undeveloped health infrastructure. It's going to get very ugly in our neighbours to the northwest.

[GoktimusPrime]

Smoking apparently increases your vulnerability to COVID-19 up to 300%.
Just another out of the many other super good reasons to quit smoking.

[ChlorHex]

The one that worries me is Indonesia. The population is over 230 million (4th in the world) and the over 65s are around 7%. So that's roughly 18 MILLION over 65... in a country with one of the highest smoking rates in the world; some really high population densities (Java has 145 million people and it's smaller than Victoria); a lot of poverty and a relatively undeveloped health infrastructure. It's going to get very ugly in our neighbours to the northwest.

^This.
They're not known to invest in good infection surveillance nor do they have a health system that is equitable to all.
They would go through a hastened epidemic once local numbers rise - will be a scary situation when that eventuates and will very likely be under reported as well.
Looking at some reports, the population can be quite resistant to preventative measures due to a knowledge deficit.
Then comes the concern of illegal boats that'll carry the disease across to our shores if numbers peak and the country is overwhelmed... but that's for another day.

[griffin]

The situation with Indonesia is worrying, as they haven't had the best political system in place to control the population, and if their social systems collapses under the strain of a full outbreak of the virus, a lot more people will hop on boats to make the short journey to "safety" in Australia, and our border force boats can only intercept a small number at a time. Not to mention all of those people who are transiting through Indonesia from other countries, they might become more desperate to make the final journey to Australia, and the Indonesian authorities might be too busy dealing with their own problems to stop them.

A positive side effect from the virus in this country (according to some stats on the ABC today), is that since the peak of the virus numbers about 3 weeks ago, total patient numbers in Emergency Departments have fallen by 40%, from a usual 90-110% rate, down to about 60% this week... probably because less people are out in public getting hurt, from things like work or leisure related injuries, alcohol fueled violence, and car accidents, as well as a big drop in annual flu virus infections that would normally see hundreds being hospitalised during the winter months.
If we suddenly had another spike of cases, at least we have more capacity in our hospitals at the moment to handle it.

[dirge]

A positive side effect from the virus in this country (according to some stats on the ABC today), is that since the peak of the virus numbers about 3 weeks ago, total patient numbers in Emergency Departments have fallen by 40%, from a usual 90-110% rate, down to about 60% this week... probably because less people are out in public getting hurt, from things like work or leisure related injuries, alcohol fueled violence, and car accidents, as well as a big drop in annual flu virus infections that would normally see hundreds being hospitalised during the winter months.
If we suddenly had another spike of cases, at least we have more capacity in our hospitals at the moment to handle it.

I would expect this to have a lot to do with reduction in idiotic alcohol-fuelled violence, but I suspect the rate of serious car accidents probably helps. We'll be recording the lowest Easter road toll in decades, I reckon.

[Unicran]

The situation with Indonesia is worrying, as they haven't had the best political system in place to control the population, and if their social systems collapses under the strain of a full outbreak of the virus, a lot more people will hop on boats to make the short journey to "safety" in Australia, and our border force boats can only intercept a small number at a time. Not to mention all of those people who are transiting through Indonesia from other countries, they might become more desperate to make the final journey to Australia, and the Indonesian authorities might be too busy dealing with their own problems to stop them.

Hey griffin. Did you come up with this doomsday scenario while having tea with Pauline Hanson? Expect a call from Cory Bernardi to appear on his show on Sky News.

[GoktimusPrime]

This moron broke out of his hotel where he was being quarantined to visit his family... and now he's looking at either paying a $50k fine or spend a year in gaol.
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/healt...rules-c-977452
<slow.clap>

[Zippo]

New Zealand is due to end its lockdown in a weeks time; with a decision due on Monday. I am really hoping it is not ended (as much as I want certain things) as I don't feel that we have the testing side of things sorted yet - there are too many "well how did that happen" cases in the last few days.