This is probable, the disciplinary system that is, but if a majority of members are against a policy, or a significant portion, you would have to agree that the odds of penalties being issued without serious consideration of the argument would lead to a party collapse. There for the threat is essentially null and void.
I'd doubt this too as for the very same reason we agree on, polls mean nothing. Poor polling is what the Liberals use as an excuse, 3 Leaders in almost as many years?.
The timing is only relevant because a poll was put to, another 1000 people, who they would prefer, the Prime Minister or the Deputy? which was only issued when the poll of preferred Prime Minister showed that Kevin Rudd was down. The same sort of thing was done each time a new Leader of the opposition was to be instated.
I agree that Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard is popular, for many reasons apart from being a woman, but her popularity was only shown in a poll of 1000 people and as we agree, trust polls with a grain of salt. That and she has also said that she is very happy with what she is doing at the moment, this says to me that she most likely has aspirations of the "top job" but is only going to accept it a certain way.
How do you know what happened then? You must of heard or seen it somewhere?.
I agree that State members probably hold very little influence, mind you if Former Leader of The Liberal Party Malcolm Turnbull had run for NSW Premier this might not of been the case.
It's a pity too because I probably would've voted for him because NSW State Labor at the moment is an absolute joke, though, what the Seven Television Network did to Minister David Campbell is truly despicable - Wollongong City Council ran without issue and Wollongong was a better and safer place when he was Lord Mayor, it's sad to see good people's lives destroyed like that.